Changes to Handicapping System for Next Year

[jvincent]

The other issue with the whole random number generator is that 20 scores computed randomly with a given range might not represent an actual golfer. I'm guessing there is some kind of bell curve that could impact these answers. Not sure whether it would or not, but it might.

For an individual golfer, I'm pretty sure the scores would not be truly random. However, since this is supposed to apply across the entire population of golfers, it should be random.

I think I've figured out how to simultaneously calculate results for both stroke and match play so I will give that a shot tonight. I'm curious what it will look like.

This brings us back full circle to why was the change made?

My analysis suggests that for stroke play competitions the new system is worse for the high handicap golfer, which is opposite of what was supposed to happen. Maybe the result will be different for match play?

[BC MIST]

This brings us back full circle to why was the change made?

My analysis suggests that for stroke play competitions the new system is worse for the high handicap golfer, which is opposite of what was supposed to happen. Maybe the result will be different for match play?

If the high handicap player is more likely to have a higher differential total, and as a consequence a higher course handicap, while the LH player's total does not change, how can the new ESC be worse for the weaker player?

[jvincent]

If the high handicap player is more likely to have a higher differential total, and as a consequence a higher course handicap, while the LH player's total does not change, how can the new ESC be worse for the weaker player?

Good question. I'm not 100% confident in my methodology at this point, which is why I want to do an actual hole by hole calculation. That way I can calculate HDCPs for both the new and old system and compare stroke vs match play results from a single, consistent set of data.

Almost finished it last night. Need to do some RTFMing on Excel and a few more tweaks.

[bentgrass]

As someone who is interested in the math behind handicaps and the probabilities of winning competitions between players of different abilities and consistency, I find the site www.popeofslope.com to be a good reference. Here is a link to a page describing the rationale of the 96% "bonus for excellence" factor and the effect on the probabilities of a lower handicap player beating a higher handicap player (53% for a 1 stroke difference in handicaps, 60% for 6 stroke difference):

http://www.popeofslope.com/magazine/...xcellence.html

[adanac]

Good question. I'm not 100% confident in my methodology at this point, which is why I want to do an actual hole by hole calculation. That way I can calculate HDCPs for both the new and old system and compare stroke vs match play results from a single, consistent set of data.

Almost finished it last night. Need to do some RTFMing on Excel and a few more tweaks.

Interesting that you think some randomly generated scores for two fictitious players can be a suitable substitute for 100,000 actual scores by real players. Seems you are simply trying to "prove" your own point of view. Just sayin'.