NFL Overtime

[mpare]

As I watched the Pats fight back to tie the Jets last night only to lose in overtime, it struck me that the outcome of the game was really determined by the toss of a coin. My gut tells me (I admit that I could be wrong) that the team who receives the ball first in overtime, wins the highest percentage of games. It is for that reason that I prefer the NCAA's approach to overtime. It is much more balanced. The NFL's approach is akin to determining the outcome of an NHL game by having a shootout with the winner being the first team that scores! First shooter scores, the other team's player doesn't shoot.

Does anyone know what the NFL stats tell us in this regard?

[Chieflongtee]

I was going to write the same thing when the Titans won in overtime a couple weeks back. I can't believe that the outcome of the game is decided on a coin toss especially when the other team never has a chance to touch the ball.

The CFL has flaws too(i.e 1 point for a missed fg ) but if it comes down to overtime it is the same as the NCAA. Couple yeqars back the ALS lost a game in such a fashion. Even though I was not happy with the outcome it called for very exciting football.

[spackler]

Found this, which is a bit outdated but still has 30 years of data. In overtime games from 1974 through 2003, the winner of the coin flip drove down and scored 28% of the time. So both teams had at least one possession 72% of the time. The team that won the toss won 52% of overtime games.

There is an interesting split in the data though. Since 1994, when the kickoff was moved back to the 30 to reduce the number of touchbacks and increase the number of kickoffs returned, the team winning the coin flip scored on their first possession nearly a third of the time. I read somewhere else that in the current season, the number is approaching 50%. Seems like a significant advantage to me.

http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_08_04.html

[mpare]

That is a huge advantage.

... Since 1994, when the kickoff was moved back to the 30 to reduce the number of touchbacks and increase the number of kickoffs returned, the team winning the coin flip scored on their first possession nearly a third of the time. I read somewhere else that in the current season, the number is approaching 50%. Seems like a significant advantage to me.

http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_08_04.html

[LobWedge]

C'mon Mike. Your boys had the Jets at 3rd & 15 in OT, at their own 15 yard line, and they let them off the hook.

[Chieflongtee]

they let them off the hook.

What? Denny Green

[mpare]

The outcome is irrelevant to my point, although I do grant you that it would have been nice to see the Pats win. The Jets played well, though. No doubt about that. But the NFL's method of settling the outcome of a tied game is hardly the best way to do that - at least from my perspective.

C'mon Mike. Your boys had the Jets at 3rd & 15 in OT, at their own 15 yard line, and they let them off the hook.

[LobWedge]

The outcome is irrelevant to my point, although I do grant you that it would have been nice to see the Pats win. The Jets played well, though. No doubt about that. But the NFL's method of settling the outcome of a tied game is hardly the best way to do that - at least from my perspective.

I was just pulling your leg.

I completely agree. They should outlaw fieldgoals in overtime and decide the winner by touchdown only, or adopt the CFL/NCAA OT models, where each team gets at least one posession.

[mikec222]

As offenses improve, and with the change of the kickoff, and improved fieldgoal kicking, the NFL's overtime has become obsolete. I see no reason why they wouldn't change it to something similair to the NCAA or CFL. If they don't like how it can take a long time just don't allow kicking after the first overtime. It is pretty pathetic when the defense that would usually be considered succesful to hold the team to a fieldgoal attempt, loses the game. Absolute garbage (as you probably guessed i'm a pats fan)